Crecimiento económico de América Latina en el siglo XX.
Latin America’s economic growth during the 20th century.
Contenido principal del artículo
Resumen
El objetivo de este artículo es determinar el impacto de los factores: crecimiento del stock de capital, formación bruta de capital, crecimiento de la población, gasto de consumo final del gobierno general, nivel de inflación y exportaciones de bienes y servicios en el crecimiento económico de América Latina durante el periodo de 1900 a 2000. Los países de la muestra son Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, República Dominicana, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haití, Honduras, México, Nicaragua, Panamá, Paraguay, Perú, Uruguay, Venezuela. Los resultados indican que el crecimiento del stock de capital y la formación bruta de capital son variables centrales para explicar el proceso de acumulación de capital y el aumento de capacidad productiva en cualquiera de las economías. Además, el gasto del gobierno general como proporción del PIB, mostró una relación negativa con el crecimiento del ingreso real per cápita; sin embargo, el gasto público es clave para solucionar conflictos distributivos y sociales. Finalmente, el comercio exterior es clave para que cualquier país logre beneficiarse de las ventajas comparativas, financiamiento exterior, flujo de ideas y de bienes del resto del mundo.
Palabras clave:
Descargas
Detalles del artículo
Referencias (VER)
Acemoglu, D., & Robinson, J. (2010). The Role of Institutions in Growth and Development. Review of Economics and Institutions, 1(2). https://doi.org/10.5202/rei.v1i2.14
Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., & Robinson, J. (2001). The colonial origins of comparative development: an empirical investigation. The American Economic Review, 91(5), 1369-1401. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.5.1369
Aghion, P., Howitt, P. (1992). A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction. Econometrica, 60(2), 323-351. https://doi.org/10.2307/2951599
Alesina, A., Perotti, R. (1994). The Political Economy of Growth: A Critical Survey of the Recent Literature. The World Bank Economic Review, 8(3), 351-371. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/8.3.351
Alesina, A., Rodrik, D. (1994). Distributive Politics and Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109(2), 465-490. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118470
Alesina, A., Özler, S., Roubini, N., Swagel, P. (1996). Political Instability and Economic Growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 1(2), 189-211. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00138862
Altman, D., Castiglioni, R. (2009). Democratic Quality and Human Development in Latin America: 1972-2001. Revue canadienne de science politique, 42(2), 297-319. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423909090301
Barro, R. (1991). Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 407- 443. https://doi.org/10.2307/2937943
Barro, R. (1996). Democracy and Growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 11, 1-27. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00163340
Barro, R. (1999). Notes on Growth Accounting. Journal of Economic Growth, 4(2), 119-137. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009828704275
Barro, R. (2000). Inequality and Growth in a Panel of Countries. Journal of Economic Growth, 5(1), 5-32. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009850119329
Barro, R. (2001). Human Capital and Growth. The American Economic Review, 91(2), 12-17. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.2.12
Barro, R., Ursúa, J. (2008). Rare Macroeconomic Crises since 1870. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2008, 255-335. https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.0.0000
Barro, R., Ursúa, J. F. (2009). Stock-market crashes and depressions. NBER Working Paper No. 14760. https://doi.org/10.3386/w14760
Blyde, J. S., Daude, C., Fernández-Arias, E. (2010). Output collapses and productivity destruction. Review of World Economics, 146(2), 359-387. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-010-0051-0
Bolt, J., Inklaar, R., Jong, H. d., Zanden, J. L. (2018). Rebasing 'Maddison': new income comparisons and the shape of long-run economic development. Maddison Project Working Paper 10. Obtenido de http://www.ggdc.net/maddison
Cáceres, L. R., Sandoval, Ó. N. (1999). Crecimiento económico y divergencia en la América Latina. El Trimestre Económico, 66(4), 781-796.
Cardoso, E., & Fishlow, A. (1992). Latin American Economic Development: 1950-1980. Journal of Latin American Studies, 24, 197-218. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022216X00023841
Cass, D. (1965). Optimum Growth in an Aggregative Model of Capital Accumulation. Review of Economic Studies, 32, 233-240. https://doi.org/10.2307/2295827
Chen, B.L. (1999). Trade Openness and Economic Growth: Evidence in East Asia and Latin America. Journal of Economic Integration, 14(2), 265-295.
Correa, H. (1970). Sources of Economic Growth in Latin America. Southern Economic Journal, 37(1), 17-31. https://doi.org/10.2307/1056676
Cottani, J. A., Cavallo, D. F., Khan, M. S. (1990). Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Performance in LDCs. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 39(1), 61-76. https://doi.org/10.1086/451853
Cunado, J., Gil-Alana, L., Gracia, F. P. (2007). Real convergence in some emerging countries: a fractionally integrated approach. Recherches Économiques de Louvain, 73(3), 293-310. https://doi.org/10.3917/rel.733.0293
Currie, L., Sandilands, R. (1997). "Implications of an endogenous theory of growth in Allyn Young's macroeconomic concept of increasing returns. History of Political Economy, 29(3), 413-443. https://doi.org/10.1215/00182702-29-3-413
Dagum, C. (1964). La Integración y el Crecimiento Económico en América Latina. Desarrollo Económico, 4(15), 237-262. https://doi.org/10.2307/3465854
Damil, M., Fanelli, J. M., Frenkel, R., Rozenwurcel, G., Wolfson, L. (1993). Crecimiento económico en América Latina: Experiencia reciente y perspectivas. Desarrollo Económico, 33(130), 237-26. https://doi.org/10.2307/3467254
Díaz, H. O., Navarrete, R. A. (2017). Crecimiento, competitividad y restricción externa en América Latina. Investigación Económica, 76(300), 53-80. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inveco.2017.06.001
Easterly, W. (2006). Reliving the 1950s: The Big Push, Poverty Traps, and Takeoffs in Economic Development. Journal of Economic Growth, 11(4), 289-318. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-006-9006-7
Engerman, S., Sokoloff, K. (2002). Factor endowments, inequality, and paths of development among. Working paper 9259, NBER. https://doi.org/10.3386/w9259
Esfahani, H. S., Ramírez, M. T. (2003). Institutions, infrastructure, and economic growth. Journal of Development Economics, 70(2), 443- 477. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(02)00105-0
Feenstra, R., Inklaar, R., Timmer, M. (2015). The Next Generation of the Penn World Table. American Economic Review, 105(10), 3150-3182. Retrieved from http://www.ggdc.net/pwt ; https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20130954
Fernández-Arias, E., Montiel, P. (2001). Reform and Growth in Latin America: All Pain, No Gain? IMF Staff Papers, 3, 522-546. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.237554
Gramlich, E. (1994). Infrastructure Investment: A Review Essay. Journal of Economic Literature, 32(3), 1176-1196.
Gregorio, J. d. (1992). El crecimiento económico en la América Latina. El Trimestre Económico, 59, 75-107.
Halperin, M. (1961). Growth and Crisis in the Latin American Economy. Science Society, 25(3), 195-228.
Hausmann, R., Pritchett, L., Rodrik, D. (2005). Growth Accelerations. Journal of Economic Growth, 10(4), 303-329. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-005-4712-0
Hernández, I. (2005). Teoría política y fiscal. Bogotá: Universidad Externado de Colombia.
Hutchinson, G. A., Schumacher, L. (1997). Fiscal expenditure policy and economic growth: Evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean. Social and Economic Studies, 46(4), 1-16.
Imran, M., Niazi, J. (2011). Infrastructure and Growth. The Pakistan Development Review, 50(4), 355-364. https://doi.org/10.30541/v50i4IIpp.355-364
Jaramillo, J., Meisel, A., Ramírez, M. T. (2017). More than One Hundred Years of Improvements in Living Standards: the Case of Colombia. Borradores de Economia 1027, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
Koopmans, T. C. (1965). On the Concept of Optimal Economic Growth. Chicago, Rand McNally.
Lorente, L. (2018). Dinámica del crecimiento económico. Bogotá: Universidad Nacional de Colombia.
Mankiw, N. G., Phelps, E. S., Romer, P. (1995). The Growth of Nations. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, (1), 275-326. https://doi.org/10.2307/2534576
Mattos, C. A. (1981). Crecimiento y concentración espacial en la América Latina: algunas consecuencias. El Trimestre Económico, 48(2), 341-362.
Muga, L., Santamaría, R. (2007). The Momentum Effect in Latin American Emerging Markets. Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, 43(4), 24-45. https://doi.org/10.2753/REE1540-496X430402
Naveed, A., Shabbir, G. (2006). Trade openness, FDI and economic growth: A Panel Study. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 44(1), 137-154.
Nunn, N. (2009). The Importance of History for Economic Development. Annual Review of Economics, 1, 65-92. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.economics.050708.143336
Orozco, C., Rivera, N. (2018). Instituciones como factor decisivo para el crecimiento económico. Econografos - Escuela de Economía (120).
Panizza, U. (2002). Income Inequality and Economic Growth: Evidence from American Data. Journal of Economic Growth, 7(2), 25-41. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1013414509803
Ramírez, M. T. (2007). Efectos de Eslabonamiento de la Infraestructura de Transporte sobre la Economía Colombiana: 1900-1950. In J. Robinson, M. Urrutia, Economía colombiana del siglo XX: Un análisis cuantitativo (pp. 383-457). Fondo de Cultura Económica.
Reinhart, C., Rogoff, K. (2009). The Aftermath of Financial Crises. The American Economic Review, 99(2), 466-472. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.99.2.466
Reinhart, C., Rogoff, K. (2009). This time is different: eight centuries of financial folly. Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400831722
Reinhart, C., Rogoff, K. (2011). From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis. American Economic Review, 101(5), 1676-1706. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.101.5.1676
Rhodes-Purdy, M. (2017). Beyond the Balance Sheet: Performance, Participation, and Regime Support in Latin America. Comparative Politics, 49(2), 252-272. https://doi.org/10.5129/001041517820201350
Rivera Lozano, M., Rivera Garzón, N. (2019). Crisis financieras: esta vez no es distinto. Revista Finanzas y Política Económica, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2019.11.1.8
Rivera-Batiz, L. A., Romer, P. (1991). Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 531-555. https://doi.org/10.2307/2937946
Rodríguez, F., Rodrik, D. (2000). Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 15(2000), 261-325. https://doi.org/10.1086/654419
Rodrik, D. (2008). The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 365-412. https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.0.0020
Rodrik, D., Wacziarg, R. (2005). Do Democratic Transitions Produce Bad Economic Outcomes? The American Economic Review, 95(2), 50-55. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282805774670059
Romer, P. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 71-102. https://doi.org/10.1086/261725
Schumpeter, J. (1911). The theory of economic development. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Slemrod, J., Gale, W., Easterly, W. (1995). What Do Cross-Country Studies Teach about Government Involvement, Prosperity, and Economic Growth? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, (2), 373-431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2534615
Solow, R. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, 65-94. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884513
Thornton, J. (2001). Population Growth and Economic Growth: Long-Run Evidence from Latin America. Southern Economic Journal, 68(2), 464-468. https://doi.org/10.2307/1061606
Tilak, J. (1989). The Recession and Public Investment in Education in Latin America. Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs, 31(2), 125-146. https://doi.org/10.2307/165914
Wolf, H. (1994). Growth Convergence Reconsidered. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 130(4), 747-759. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02707535
Young, A. (1928). Increasing Returns and Economic Progress. The Economic Journal, 38(152), 527-542. https://doi.org/10.2307/2224097